One Currency, Dual Markets

"Advancing Financial Market Liberalization and National Financial Ascent through Diagnostic Research on RMB's Offshore Internationalization Pathways

探析人民币国际化离岸发展进程，推动实现金融市场开放与金融强国目标

The Renminbi is currently the only currency in the world that has not achieved capital account convertibility but has become an international reserve currency. The onshore and offshore markets of the Renminbi operate two different currency systems with different rules, using two different currency symbols (CNY and CNH), creatively practicing the ""non corner solution"" under the framework of the ""trilemma"", and successfully promoting the internationalization of offshore currency models when the local currency does not meet the ""convertibility"" conditions. This is an extremely special phenomenon in the long river of human monetary evolution. The Renminbi has anchored its own coordinates in history.

This book examines the issue of currency internationalization from the perspectives of historical environment and multi-party games, combining theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, this book analyzes the unique structure of the RMB as ""one currency, two markets"", with a focus on studying the linkage relationship and connectivity tools between the two markets. Secondly, this book systematically explains two research frameworks of international monetary theory, elucidates the inherent logic of the offshore development model of the RMB, dialectically discusses the controversial issues in the current academic community, and expands the theoretical elements of international currency in the context of geopolitics. Again, this book studies China's unique ""non corner solution"" form within the classic framework of the ""trilemma"" and proposes the rich connotations of RMB internationalization from multiple perspectives. Finally, in the empirical analysis chapter, this book conducted a retrospective analysis using Chinese data to quantitatively explain the trade-offs and choices in capital account reform. This book has a novel perspective and multi-dimensional outlines the outline of the internationalization and offshore development of the RMB, reflecting cultural and historical speculation.

人民币是当今世界上唯一一个没有实现资本项目可兑换，但成为国际储备货币的币种。人民币在岸市场和离岸市场运行着两套规则不同的货币体系，使用两种不同的货币符号（CNY和CNH），创造性地实践了"三元悖论"框架下的"非角点解"，在本币不满足"可兑换"条件下成功推动了离岸模式的货币国际化发展。这在人类货币演进的漫漫长河中是一个极为特殊的现象。人民币于历史中锚定了自己的坐标。

本书从历史环境和多方博弈的视角看待货币国际化问题，兼具理论和实证分析。首先，本书剖析了人民币"一种货币，两个市场"的独特结构，重点研究了两个市场之间的联动关系和联通工具。其次，本书系统阐释了国际货币理论的两个研究框架，阐明了人民币离岸发展模式的内在逻辑，对当前学术界存在较大争议的问题进行了辩证讨论，并在地缘政治背景下扩展了国际货币的理论要素。再次，本书在"三元悖论"经典框架下研究了中国特殊的"非角点解"形式，提出了人民币国际化在多视角下的丰富内涵。最后，本书在实证分析章节运用中国数据进行了回溯分析，对资本项目改革的权衡和取舍进行了定量阐释。本书视角新颖，多维度勾勒了人民币国际化离岸发展的轮廓，并体现出对文化和历史的思辨。